All three oval ball football codes AFL, NRL and Super 15 AU are back bigger than ever and OvalBall has come out of its summer hibernation to assist with the economic and mental challenges of beating the Big Bookie in the Cloud.
From Super Rugby to NRL to AFL, OvalballOdds is committed to the calculation and
dissemination of objective odds for matches played with the elliptical
inflatable.
To this end the site displays predicted scores and objective
odds for teams competing in the
Super Rugby
competition, the
Australian Football League
and the
National Rugby League
. The method of prediction follows a well worn methodological path. Teams are
rated on the basis
of their past performances.
While detailed match by match
analysis is provided in each codes web page, the OvalBallOdds website
also offers a
Best Bets Page
that summarises and conveniently ranks OvallBallOdds' suggestions across the three ovall ball codes
by expected betting return (on the assumption that the OvalBallOdds predictions
are accurate and that you can get on at the published market rates.
The tables below provides a quick summary of the recent performance of OvalBallOdds'
fearless predictions benchmarked against the betting market and the
default home team option.
|
|
|
| AFL Prediction Stats: 248 matches from 2023 Round 10 to 2024 b |
| Measure |
Market |
Oval Ball |
Home Team |
| Average Error |
27.51 |
28.55 |
29.94 |
| Win Prediction Performance |
62.9% |
61.3% |
57.7% |
| Beat the Line Performance |
n/a |
53.6% |
54.8% |
| Bet $100 per Match Return |
-5.3% |
-1.1% |
10.2% |
| Bet to Win $100 per Match Return |
-5.8% |
-4.7% |
-0.5% |
| Bet $100 to beat the Line Return |
n/a |
7.3% |
9.7% |
|
| S15 Prediction Stats: 134 matches from 2023 Round 10 to 2024 Grand Final |
| Measure |
Market |
Oval Ball |
Home Team |
| Average Error |
13.01 |
12.99 |
15.99 |
| Win Prediction Performance |
73.1% |
76.9% |
64.2% |
| Beat the Line Performance |
n/a |
53.7% |
49.3% |
| Bet $100 per Match Return |
-1.4% |
12.0% |
31.5% |
| Bet to Win $100 per Match Return |
-1.5% |
1.7% |
3.9% |
| Bet $100 to beat the Line Return |
n/a |
7.5% |
-1.5% |
|
| NRL Prediction Stats: 241 matches from 2023 Round 10 to 2024 Grand Final |
| Measure |
Market |
Oval Ball |
Home Team |
| Average Error |
14.59 |
14.73 |
15.84 |
| Win Prediction Performance |
62.4% |
64.1% |
56.6% |
| Beat the Line Performance |
n/a |
54.8% |
52.3% |
| Bet $100 per Match Return |
-7.0% |
7.0% |
0.4% |
| Bet to Win $100 per Match Return |
-3.0% |
3.3% |
0.2% |
| Bet $100 to beat the Line Return |
n/a |
9.5% |
4.6% |
|
Note the the return figures in the above table are computed using market odds that
have been adjusted to ensure that the sum of the probability of all possible outcomes
is 100% and on the basis of money back in the event of a drawn game. The return
figures overrate achievable return as no account is taken of odds spread and commission
paid on winning bets. The influence of these two factors that weigh on achievable
return is accounted for in the
Betting Analysis
module.
Teams are rated on
the basis of their past performances. These team ratings are then employed to predict the margins of
the upcoming round of matches. A team's ratings at any point in time is influenced by
a number factors. These are:
long-term