This site is devoted to the prediction of the outcomes of games played with an oval ball. The method of prediction follows a well worn methodological path.  Teams are rated on the basis of their past performances.  These team ratings are then employed to predict the margins of the upcoming round of matches. A team's ratings at any point in time is influenced by a number factors.  These are:
long-term

• past scoring performance (over two years)
• short-term scoring performance (over the last six weeks or so)
• home ground advantage
• travel burden (over time zones) 

For any match, the OvalBallOdds prediction of match margin is probabilistic.  That is, the OBallBallOdds site provides an indication of the most likely outcome via the predicted margin.  However, implicit in this prediction is the recognition of the possibility of other results through the calculation and publication of odds of an outcome.  The OvalBallOdds site provides estimates of fair odds for two specific outcomes:

1. A home team win (and an away team win) and
2. A home team line beat (and an away team line beat)

For any match, the OvalBall prediction of match margin is probabilistic.  That is, the OvalBallBallOdds site provides an indication of the most likely outcome via the predicted margin.  However, implicit in this prediction is the recognition of the possibility of other results through the calculation and publication of odds of an outcome.  The OvalBallOdds site provides estimates of fair odds for two specific outcomes:

1. A home team win (and an away team win) and
2. A home team line beat (and an away team line beat)

OvalBallOdds uses a 'Line' figure in its analysis of any match.  In principle the Line figure is the points start the home team needs to give both the home team and the away an equal chance of winning.  In practice is the Line figure and the "market" win odds are sourced each week as the average/consensus from one of a number of commercial betting sites. 

OvalBallOdds' mission is the calculation accurate, probabilistic predictions of match outcomes. The OvalBallOdds site will publish two statistics for measuring its own performance.  The first statistic is the percentage correct results (Wins) prediction (1 for a win 1/2 for a draw).  The OvalBallOdds site also  records the percentage of "line beats".  The line beats percentage displays the performance of OvallBallOdds in beating the market line.  This statistic provides the best measure of OvalBallOdds' performance in outperforming the market as represented by the Line figure.

As stated at the outset the OvalBallOdds site will continue to evolve over time and its is hoped that the data displayed on the site will inform and assist you in the battle with the eternal enemy - the book.  Of course it goes without saying that while OvalBallOdds takes every care in the production of its forecsts and prediction, it takes no responsibility for the result of their use.  OvalBallOdds insists all visitors comply with OvalBallOdds Terms of Use policy.