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Betting Analysis

 

Oval Ball 2022: Back again putting an edge on the odds

OvalBall's mantra is and always will be to beat the market. However despite its super-powers OvalBall has not been able to eliminate the Virus. However,all three football codes AFL, NRL and Super 15 AU back on the paddock and OvalBall is here to assist with the economic recovery.

From Super Rugby to NRL to AFL, OvalballOdds is committed to the calculation and dissemination of objective odds for matches played with the elliptical inflatable.  To this end the site displays predicted scores and objective odds for teams competing in the Super Rugby competition, the Australian Football League  and the National Rugby League .  The method of prediction follows a well worn methodological path.  Teams are rated on the basis of their past performances. 

 

While detailed match by match analysis is provided in each codes web page, the OvalBallOdds website also offers a Best Bets Page  that summarises and conveniently ranks OvallBallOdds' suggestions across the three ovall ball codes by expected betting return (on the assumption that the OvalBallOdds predictions are accurate and that you can get on at the published market rates.

The tables below provides a quick summary of the recent performance of OvalBallOdds' fearless predictions benchmarked against the betting market and the default home team option.

 

 
AFL Prediction Stats: 207 matches from 2022 Round 1 to 2022 Grand Final
Measure Market Oval Ball Home Team
Average Error 25.46 26.66 30.29
Win Prediction Performance 70.8% 66.4% 61.1%
Beat the Line Performance n/a 54.1% 51.2%
Bet $100 per Match Return 5.3% 0.2% 9.1%
Bet to Win $100 per Match Return 4.5% 2.9% 8.1%
Bet $100 to beat the Line Return n/a 8.2% 2.4%
S15 Prediction Stats: 24 matches from 2022 Round 1 to 2022 Grand Final
Measure Market Oval Ball Home Team
Average Error 9.58 10.92 10.63
Win Prediction Performance 77.1% 72.9% 60.4%
Beat the Line Performance n/a 58.3% 45.8%
Bet $100 per Match Return 73.0% 77.7% 15.0%
Bet to Win $100 per Match Return 3.1% 4.6% -10.4%
Bet $100 to beat the Line Return n/a 16.7% -8.3%
NRL Prediction Stats: 200 matches from 2022 Round 1 to 2022 Grand Final
Measure Market Oval Ball Home Team
Average Error 12.91 14.05 15.98
Win Prediction Performance 74.0% 65.5% 57.5%
Beat the Line Performance n/a 51.5% 45.5%
Bet $100 per Match Return 9.2% -1.8% 2.6%
Bet to Win $100 per Match Return 6.8% 3.1% 6.3%
Bet $100 to beat the Line Return n/a 3.0% -9.0%

Note the the return figures in the above table are computed using market odds that have been adjusted to ensure that the sum of the probability of all possible outcomes is 100% and on the basis of money back in the event of a drawn game.  The return figures overrate achievable return as no account is taken of odds spread and commission paid on winning bets.  The influence of these two factors that weigh on achievable return is accounted for in the Betting Analysis module. 

Teams are rated on the basis of their past performances.  These team ratings are then employed to predict the margins of the upcoming round of matches. A team's ratings at any point in time is influenced by a number factors.  These are:
long-term

  • past scoring performance (over two years)
  • short-term scoring performance (over the last six weeks or so)
  • home ground advantage
  • travel 

Click  for further information on method of prediction

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