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This site is devoted to the prediction of the outcomes of games played with an oval
ball. So far the site provides odds on teams competing in the
Super 15 rugby union
competition and the Australian Football League.
The method of prediction follows a well worn methodological path. Teams are
rated on the basis
of their past performances. These team ratings are then employed to predict the margins of
the upcoming round of matches. A team's ratings at any point in time is influenced by
a number factors. These are:
long-term
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past scoring performance (over two years)
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short-term scoring performance (over the last six weeks or so)
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home ground advantage
-
travel burden (over time zones)
The table below provides a quick summary of the recent performance of OalBallOdds'
fearless predictions benchmarked against the betting market and the prediction pioneer
FootyForecaster.
| Gap Row |
| AFL Performance Summary: 71 matches played over the period 2020 Round 01 to 2020 Round 08 |
| Measure |
Market |
Oval Ball |
FootyForecaster |
Spare Column |
| Average Error |
23.65 |
25.73 |
24.44 |
| Win Prediction Performance |
63.4% |
54.9% |
57.7% |
| Beat the Line Performance |
n/a |
50.7% |
52.1% |
| Bet $100 per Match Return |
3.9% |
-3.0% |
14.6% |
| Bet to Win $100 per Match Return |
-0.8% |
-5.3% |
6.8% |
| Bet $100 to beat the Line Return |
n/a |
1.4% |
4.2% |
| Gap Row |
| S15 Performance Summary: 22 matches played over the period 2020 Round 01 to 2020 Round 12 |
| Measure |
Market |
Oval Ball |
FootyForecaster |
Spare Column |
| Average Error |
4.32 |
3.86 |
4.18 |
| Win Prediction Performance |
59.1% |
54.5% |
31.8% |
| Beat the Line Performance |
n/a |
27.3% |
27.3% |
| Bet $100 per Match Return |
-.9% |
-.9% |
-15.2% |
| Bet to Win $100 per Match Return |
66.4% |
135.3% |
-1.8% |
| Bet $100 to beat the Line Return |
n/a |
-45.5% |
-45.5% |
| Gap Row |
| NRL Performance Summary: 104 matches played over the period 2020 Round 01 to 2020 Round 13 |
| Measure |
Market |
Oval Ball |
FootyForecaster |
Spare Column |
| Average Error |
13.07 |
12.86 |
14.32 |
| Win Prediction Performance |
70.2% |
69.2% |
54.8% |
| Beat the Line Performance |
n/a |
65.4% |
49.0% |
| Bet $100 per Match Return |
27.3% |
32.4% |
57.9% |
| Bet to Win $100 per Match Return |
-9.6% |
-8.2% |
2.2% |
| Bet $100 to beat the Line Return |
n/a |
30.8% |
-1.9% |
Note the the return figures in the above table are computed using market odds that
have been adjusted to ensure that the sum of the probability of all possible outcomes
is 100% and on the basis of money back in the event of a drawn game.
Click
here
for further information on OvalBallOdds' method of prediction
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