Super 15

AFL

Methodology

This site is devoted to the prediction of the outcomes of games played with an oval ball. So far the site provides odds on teams competing in the Super 15 rugby union competition and the Australian Football League.   

The method of prediction follows a well worn methodological path.  Teams are rated on the basis of their past performances.  These team ratings are then employed to predict the margins of the upcoming round of matches. A team's ratings at any point in time is influenced by a number factors.  These are:
long-term

  • past scoring performance (over two years)
  • short-term scoring performance (over the last six weeks or so)
  • home ground advantage
  • travel burden (over time zones) 

The table below provides a quick summary of the recent performance of OalBallOdds' fearless predictions benchmarked against the betting market and the prediction pioneer FootyForecaster.

Gap Row
AFL Performance Summary: 160 matches played over the period 2020 Round 01 to 2020 Round 20
Measure Market Oval Ball FootyForecaster Spare Column
Average Error 22.96 24.64 25.83
Win Prediction Performance 69.1% 65.3% 57.8%
Beat the Line Performance n/a 49.4% 51.3%
Bet $100 per Match Return 8.0% 7.9% 8.9%
Bet to Win $100 per Match Return 9.1% 9.8% 13.9%
Bet $100 to beat the Line Return n/a -1.3% 2.5%
Gap Row
S15 Performance Summary: 16 matches played over the period 2020 Round 01 to 2020 Round 08
Measure Market Oval Ball FootyForecaster Spare Column
Average Error 11.94 12.31 12.94
Win Prediction Performance 62.5% 56.3% 18.8%
Beat the Line Performance n/a 37.5% 37.5%
Bet $100 per Match Return -9.8% -9.9% -37.3%
Bet to Win $100 per Match Return 43.6% 55.4% 1992.8%
Bet $100 to beat the Line Return n/a -25.0% -25.0%
Gap Row
NRL Performance Summary: 163 matches played over the period 2020 Round 01 to 2020 Round 21
Measure Market Oval Ball FootyForecaster Spare Column
Average Error 13.17 13.22 15.34
Win Prediction Performance 72.4% 71.8% 54.6%
Beat the Line Performance n/a 62.6% 49.1%
Bet $100 per Match Return 20.2% 26.9% 32.8%
Bet to Win $100 per Match Return -3.1% -0.9% 1.9%
Bet $100 to beat the Line Return n/a 25.2% -1.8%
 

Note the the return figures in the above table are computed using market odds that have been adjusted to ensure that the sum of the probability of all possible outcomes is 100% and on the basis of money back in the event of a drawn game.

Click here for further information on OvalBallOdds' method of prediction