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This site is devoted to the prediction of the outcomes of games played with an oval
ball. In recent times the site has displayed predicted scores and objective
odds for teams competing in the
Super Rugby
competition and the
Australian Football League.
This year OvalBallOdds is pleased to present the an analysis for the
National Rugby League. The method of prediction follows a well worn methodological path. Teams are
rated on the basis
of their past performances.
The tables below provides a quick summary of the recent performance of OalBallOdds'
fearless predictions benchmarked against the betting market and the prediction pioneer
FootyForecaster.
| Gap Row |
| AFL Prediction Stats: 71 matches from 2012 Round 1 to 2012 Round 8 |
| Measure |
Market |
Oval Ball |
FootyForecast |
| Average Error |
29.19 |
27.31 |
32.17 |
| Win Prediction Performance |
74.6% |
78.9% |
70.4% |
| Beat the Line Performance |
n/a |
57.7% |
53.5% |
| Bet $100 per Match Return |
1.8% |
14.3% |
-1.9% |
| Bet to Win $100 per Match Return |
3.9% |
6.6% |
3.3% |
| Bet $100 to beat the Line Return |
n/a |
15.5% |
7.0% |
| Gap Row |
| S15 Prediction Stats: 87 matches from 2012 Round 1 to 2012 Round 13 |
| Measure |
Market |
Oval Ball |
FootyForecast |
| Average Error |
9.75 |
10.55 |
10.51 |
| Win Prediction Performance |
66.7% |
65.5% |
65.5% |
| Beat the Line Performance |
n/a |
50.6% |
47.1% |
| Bet $100 per Match Return |
1.6% |
3.8% |
5.0% |
| Bet to Win $100 per Match Return |
3.5% |
4.6% |
5.2% |
| Bet $100 to beat the Line Return |
n/a |
1.1% |
-5.7% |
| Gap Row |
| NRL Prediction Stats: 83 matches from 2012 Round 1 to 2012 Round 11 |
| Measure |
Market |
Oval Ball |
FootyForecast |
| Average Error |
12.28 |
14.58 |
13.39 |
| Win Prediction Performance |
61.4% |
57.8% |
59.0% |
| Beat the Line Performance |
n/a |
44.6% |
47.0% |
| Bet $100 per Match Return |
-.8% |
-1.5% |
-2.6% |
| Bet to Win $100 per Match Return |
-1.4% |
-2.0% |
-2.5% |
| Bet $100 to beat the Line Return |
n/a |
-10.8% |
-6.0% |
Note the the return figures in the above table are computed using market odds that
have been adjusted to ensure that the sum of the probability of all possible outcomes
is 100% and on the basis of money back in the event of a drawn game. The return
figures overrate achievable return as no account is taken of odds spread and commission
paid on winning bets. The influence of these two factors that weigh on achievable
return is accounted for in the
Betting Analysis
module.
Teams are rated on
the basis of their past performances. These team ratings are then employed to predict the margins of
the upcoming round of matches. A team's ratings at any point in time is influenced by
a number factors. These are:
long-term
-
past scoring performance (over two years)
-
short-term scoring performance (over the last six weeks or so)
-
home ground advantage
-
travel burden (over time zones)
Click
here
for further information on
OvalBallOdds' method method of prediction
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Terms of Use
policy.
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